What are the Bitcoin Halving Effects of Prices and Mining in 2024? On Friday, just after 8:09 p.m. Eastern, the much-awaited fourth iteration of the bitcoin halving took place, signaling a momentous occasion in the cryptocurrency industry. The most popular digital currency, Bitcoin, held stable at $63,000 immediately following the halving. But what does this halving signify for the mining sector and the future of Bitcoin prices?
Understanding the Bitcoin Halving
Both the rate at which new bitcoin is issued and the payouts to mining participants who are successful are halved after the halving. Since there can only be 21 million bitcoin, the price of bitcoin may decrease if fewer new tokens are issued and put into circulation. That is why miners and investors alike are keeping a careful eye on the halving.
What Happened At This Halving?
Following the halving today, 3.125 new bitcoin are minted around every ten minutes. These halving occurrences were included into the network’s design at the time of its first launch in January 2009 and occur after every 210,000 blocks are validated, or roughly every four years.
After that, the block reward, sometimes referred to as the subsidy, which is connected to validating each new block of transactions on the Bitcoin network, is cut in half.
The block subsidy is the newly created bitcoin that is appended to the block as a reward to the associated miner. As a result, the effective block reward for successful miners is currently 3.125 bitcoin.
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This charge is significantly greater than the about $7 bitcoin that was earned in total fees for the correct verification of the blocks that came right before the halved block, which is worth a little over $450,000. Although the cause of this rise is unknown, it is possible that more people were prepared to pay in fees in order to have their transactions included in the 3,050 that were part of the halving block.
What Happens Next?
Previous halvings have caused the price of bitcoin to rise to unprecedented levels in the months that follow the events. This time, though, is unique since in the months before the halving, the price of bitcoin already hit a new all-time high.
Much of the recent rally was driven by the spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), perhaps an indication the demand created by that market may have a greater impact on bitcoin prices than halving events.
According to Kraken Head of Strategy Thomas Perfumo, there is a degree of additional symbolism associated with this halving in terms of the illustration of bitcoin’s apolitical, unwavering monetary policy at a time when many people around the world are having questions about their own currencies.
“At a time when you have people who are looking at their conventional currencies—inflation, interest rates, and the economic environment they live in—they see this alternative form of currency, bitcoin,” Perfumo told Bloomberg.
However, analysts at JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank said that the impact this of halving was mostly baked into the current bitcoin prices and there isn’t likely to be a large upward movement in the price in its aftermath.
According to these reports, the near-term effects of the halving may be limited to the bitcoin mining sector, where consolidation could occur as overall hashrate declines due to decreased profitability.
The Future of Bitcoin Prices and Mining What are the Bitcoin Halving
The Bitcoin network on Friday evening completed its fourth “halving,” reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25. The price of bitcoin has been volatile ahead of the event, and fell about 4% this week to trade around $64,100, according to Coin Metrics.
Mechanically, the halving itself shouldn’t affect the price of bitcoin in the short term, but many investors are expecting big gains in the months ahead, based on the cryptocurrency’s performance after previous halvings. After the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, the bitcoin price ran up about 93x, 30x and 8x, respectively, from its halving day price to its cycle top.
“All else equal, the halving will cut industry revenues in half, triggering a wave of consolidation and business closures, while (hopefully) rationalizing the network hashrate and industry capex, which is ultimately good for the remaining operators,” JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith said in a recent note to investors.
Hash rates are a measure of the computational power used to process transactions on the bitcoin network. The larger a miner’s hash rate, the greater of a revenue opportunity it has.
Mining stocks have been volatile in the days leading up to the event. Many are down by double digits for the year, after rallying between about 300% and 600% in 2023. Riot Platforms, for instance, is down about 41% in 2024 through Friday’s close, but it surged 356% in 2023.
“The market so far has seen bitcoin mining stocks as mere BTC proxies, in absence of bitcoin ETFs,” said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani. ”[The] halving would further differentiate the low cost, high-scale consolidating winners vs. rest of smaller miners which may be disadvantaged post-halving.”
Still, speculators may still trade on the event. Another JPMorgan analyst, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said Thursday that he expects the near-term bitcoin price to fall after the halving, citing overbought conditions and prices that are still above the cryptocurrency’s comparison to gold when adjusted for volatility. He also pointed to subdued venture capital funding of crypto projects.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank have a similar view.
″[The] Bitcoin halving is already partially priced in by the market and we do not expect prices to increase significantly following the halving event,” the firm’s Marion Laboure said in a note Thursday, adding that it “has been widely anticipated in advance due to the nature of the Bitcoin algorithm.”
“Looking ahead, we continue to expect prices to stay high,” she added, citing expectations of future spot Ethereum ETF approvals, future central bank rate cuts and regulatory developments.
Bitcoin is currently trading at just under $64,000, roughly 13% off its March 14 all-time high of $73,797.68.
Conclusion
One of the most awaited developments in the cryptocurrency world, the halving of Bitcoin, took place early on Saturday morning London time. The network will now only produce 3.125 new Bitcoin every 10 minutes, as opposed to 6.25 previously.
As the halving lowers the quantity of Bitcoin available, market participants brace themselves for possible price hikes. The impact of this halving, however, might differ from earlier ones because of a number of variables influencing the price of Bitcoin, such as the involvement of miners, investor demand, and outside economic forces.
